s
hamzeh karimi; Saeed Karimi Potanlar; Ahmad Jafari Samimi
Abstract
considering the importance of oil shocks in Iran's economy, in this research, an attempt has been made to examine the effects of oil income shocks on the expenditure and income components of the government's general budget. in this regard, in order to consider structural instability in parameters, time-varying ...
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considering the importance of oil shocks in Iran's economy, in this research, an attempt has been made to examine the effects of oil income shocks on the expenditure and income components of the government's general budget. in this regard, in order to consider structural instability in parameters, time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) models are used. this model allows the estimated coefficients vary over time. in this research, the seasonal data in period of 1990/02-2019/01 be used. the estimation results of the models indicate the positive and short-term effects of oil income shocks on current expenditures and construction expenditures. the estimation of the second model shows the negative impact of oil shocks on tax revenues and the positive impact on other government revenues. the results of reaction functions (IRF) also show that the mentioned effects have a short duration and are reversed in the next periods and disappear quickly. also, the estimation results of the models show that the impact of oil shocks on inflation has varied over time and changed from negative to positive after the income shock of 2005.
Economic Growth
saeed karimi potanlar; ahmad jafari samimi; hamid Hamid La'l-e-Khezri
Abstract
The aim of this article is to analyzing the effect of shocks of fiscal consolidation policy on the macroeconomic variables of Iran. In this regard by using Factor Augmented Vector Auto Regression (FAVAR) method the effect of shocks on government revenues and expenditures on important macroeconomic variables ...
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The aim of this article is to analyzing the effect of shocks of fiscal consolidation policy on the macroeconomic variables of Iran. In this regard by using Factor Augmented Vector Auto Regression (FAVAR) method the effect of shocks on government revenues and expenditures on important macroeconomic variables including total real GDP growth, inflation, private consumption growth and investment growth over the period 1984:1 -2015:4 is investigated. The results of research models show that the effect of fiscal consolidation policy on the macroeconomic variables are different, and it is difficult to provide a same policy tool to effect all variables. Thus with emphasis on real GDP growth which is a major factor that affects other macroeconomic variables, it can be noted that in short term which consists of 4 seasons, reducing public expenditures and increasing government revenues lead to a reduction in production in response to a negative reaction to investment and private consumption and inflation will decrease. Therefore in the short term the suitable policy for fiscal consolidation is a combination of expenditure cut and income rising and in particular, the policy of reducing current expenditure and increasing import taxes. In the medium and long term, respectively consist of 8 and 16 seasons, real GDP growth responses positively to the expenditures cut policy, decline in current expenditures and social public expenditures is introduced as an instrument of fiscal consolidation policy.
s
HASAN ZARINEGHBAL; ahamad jafari samimi; Amir Mansour Tehranchian
Volume 8, Issue 30 , April 2018, , Pages 33-54
Abstract
This article has endeavored to study in experimental survey, the effect of Central Bank Independence (CBI) on the output and inflation fluctuations in the Iranian economy, using vector Autoregressive (VAR) econometrics method. For this purpose, we started with the changes in output and inflation stability ...
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This article has endeavored to study in experimental survey, the effect of Central Bank Independence (CBI) on the output and inflation fluctuations in the Iranian economy, using vector Autoregressive (VAR) econometrics method. For this purpose, we started with the changes in output and inflation stability in bringing about good economic performance, over the period 1961-2014 years. The paper has introduced a new legal combined Central Bank Independence index, by the name of "Average (Mean) Index". According to the 40% amount of total on the base of this new index, it has been cleared that there was independence just during 1340-1361 period. The results of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) method indicated that the inflation and output variances trends were approximately inverse over this period, except in some short periods. The estimation of study model revealed the negative and significant of Central Bank Independence effect on output and inflation variances. It means an increase in Central Bank Independence will cause decreasing their fluctuations and will results more macroeconomic stability and better economic performance. According to the result of Variance Decomposition and analysis of Impulse- Response Functions, the positive impact of central bank independence on macroeconomic stability has been confirmed, but it was much more effective on the nominal sector and shrinking the inflation uncertainty than real sector and output instability.
Mena Countries Group
Mahboobeh Shakeri; Ahmad Jafari Samimi; Zahra Karimi Moughari
Volume 6, Issue 21 , November 2015, , Pages 106-93
Abstract
The subject of this paper is measuring institutional quality and evaluatingits relationship with per capita economic growth in 20 MENA countries. For estimating growth models, panel data method was used during (2002-2010). For measuring institutional quality at first six indices of good governance have ...
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The subject of this paper is measuring institutional quality and evaluatingits relationship with per capita economic growth in 20 MENA countries. For estimating growth models, panel data method was used during (2002-2010). For measuring institutional quality at first six indices of good governance have been used in six growth models. The results have shown that only regulatory quality have positive and significant relation with economic growth. Whereas the coefficients of other institutional variables including control of corruption and political stability are negative and the others including rule of law, governance effectiveness and voice and accountability are positive but insignificant. Then another model was estimated by using good governance index which was derived from combining six upper indices by using principle component analysis (PCA). The results showed positive relationship but significant at the 0.10 percent level. In the final analysis a new institutional index is derived by combining three institutional variables which had positive coefficient into the one composite index by using PCA. New index has bigger positive coefficient and significant at the 0.01 percent level rather than its sub measures (regulatory quality, voice and accountability, rule of law) and alsothan good governance index.
Ahmad Jafari Samimi; Jalal Montazeri Shoorekchali; Musa Tatar
Volume 4, Issue 13 , January 2014, , Pages 128-117
Abstract
Regarding the important role of health in economic growth and development, the purpose of the present paper is to investigate the impact of life expectancy, as the most important indicator of health, on economic growth in Iran during 1965-2009. The estimated Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model supports ...
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Regarding the important role of health in economic growth and development, the purpose of the present paper is to investigate the impact of life expectancy, as the most important indicator of health, on economic growth in Iran during 1965-2009. The estimated Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model supports a nonlinear threshold behavior in the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth in the country in a two regime structures with a threshold level of 55.34 years. In other words, our findings are both consistent with Acemoglu and Johnson (2007) for the negative impact and with demographic transition theory for the reducing effect of life expectancy on economic growth in Iran. This shows the country is approaching the stage of the fertility transition, where the increase in life expectancy will bring about a decline in population.
